While the Phase One trade deal has been signed with China, its outlook was murky even before the Wuhan coronavirus hit. Employers had added jobs for 76 months straight — the longest hiring … Under Trump the trade deficit has grown to over $600 billion the past two years despite trying to decrease it via the trade wars he has started. Over the past 10 years it has fallen to 3.6% and has been bounced between 3.5% and 3.7% over the past nine months. Beyond the infrastructure spending, Trump’s economic policies include across-the-board tax cuts for individuals and a slashing of corporate taxes down to 15 percent from 35 percent. Federal budget deficit ballooning above $1 trillion. What’s Next? Our journalists will try to respond by joining the threads when they can to create a true meeting of independent Premium. The relatively strong economy of 2019 is not coming back for a good long while because Donald Trump is an incompetent oaf who has failed spectacularly at his job. n August Donald Trump boasted to the Republican National Convention that, before the coronavirus pandemic, he had “built the strongest economy in the history of the world” in the three years after he became president. After Canada and Mexico, China is the third largest buyer of U.S. goods. “The plumbers, the carpenters, the cops, the teachers, the truck drivers, the pipe-fitters, the people that like me best.”. The most repeated phrase of the Republican National Convention was that President Donald Trump created the greatest economy the world has ever seen. Mr. Trump and his aides cite these developments as among his biggest achievements. Start your Independent Premium subscription today. This largely extended the trend that Donald Trump inherited, rather than marking an upward shift in growth. These were going to be very hard to achieve under the best of circumstances, but with the Wuhan coronavirus there are already rumblings that these won’t be met. While this is positive for a portion of Americans, two major reasons the stock markets have risen the past three years is due to the tax cuts (but they are helping to balloon the federal budget deficit) and the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates low and flooding the markets with cash (due to concerns about the economy’s growth rate). Should You Buy Intuitive Surgical Stock At $775 Levels? A first estimate of $10.5 trillion in spending cuts over 10 years was reported on January 19, 2017,although cuts of … The Federal budget deficit has increased over 68% in Trump’s three years in office and is expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2020 and beyond. In contrast with Trump’s numerous claims about building the greatest economy in history, Zandi found that by most measurements, the country’s economic health under both administrations is quite similar. Despite a large unfunded tax cut – the kind of policy that usually puts rocket boosters under growth – the rate of US GDP growth peaked at 3.9 per cent in the final quarter of 2017 under Trump. The economy has in fact created seven million jobs," wrote former Trump chief economic advisor Gary Cohn and former Trump chair of the Council … When he took office in January 2017 there were 145 million Americans in employment. The Covid hurricane has plainly upended the US economy, crushing activity by a record amount and sending joblessness soaring. Trump Did Nothing to Help the Economic Boom (Bloomberg Opinion) -- The public gives President Donald Trump very low marks for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and race relations. Dow Jones Today: Stocks Slide As U.K. Triggers Tier 4 Lockdown; Coronavirus Mutation And Tesla Stock In Focus. Before joining Atlantic Trust I was the Internet Security Software analyst for Smith Barney (where I authored the most comprehensive industry report “Internet Security Software: The Ultimate Internet Infrastructure”) and an Enterprise Server Hardware analyst at Salomon Brothers. It has since bounced back strongly, but hasn't regained all its losses. Job gains (and losses) The United States experienced some of its best years of job gains in 2014 … U.S. goods exports to China have fallen, hurting companies and farmers. One group that has been especially hard hit is soybean farmers as their exports to China have fallen almost $20 billion over the past two years. “I’m going to be the greatest jobs president God ever created” was Donald Trump’s pledge when he officially announced he was running for President in June 2015. “It’s time to start thinking big once again,” he said in a speech to the New York Economic Club in September 2016. Trump said he would be 'the greatest jobs president God ever created'. Trump may also be getting a pass on the economy because Americans are more concerned with other problems, including race relations and especially the pandemic itself. “That’s why I believe it is time to establish a national goal of reaching 4 per cent economic growth.”. Using the comparable period in Barack Obama’s second term (January 2013 to December 2015) the number of jobs also rose by around 7 million. And the deadlock in negotiations with the Democrats in Congress on extending the $2 trillion stimulus package from March is seen as creating a serious risk of more business failures and another spike in joblessness. The existing Open Comments threads will continue to exist for those who do not subscribe to Independent Premium. At the start of Donald Trump’s presidency in January 2017, the economy was healthy. Trade deficit has grown despite the trade wars. Mr Trump came to power with unrealistic promises to create 25m jobs and supercharge economic growth, and to that end cut taxes and boosted spending, widening the fiscal deficit … “New factories will come rushing back to our shores,” promised Trump in 2016. His first action was the U.S. … Claim: "In 2016, the Department of Labor predicted that Americans would continue dropping out of the workforce in record numbers." The average quarterly economic growth under Trump, 2.5 percent, was almost exactly what it was under Obama in the second term, 2.4 percent. "We had tremendous increases in living standards," said economic adviser Lawrence Kudlow. In fact, 82% of Trump voters said the economy was the issue that mattered most to them, according to preliminary exit poll data from The New York Times.And 8 in 10 Trump supporters cited the economy and jobs as their top motivator in deciding who to vote for, based on a large AP VoteCast survey of more than 100,000 voters conducted in the days before and on Election Day. The markets will need earnings growth to rise significantly this year. The top 1 per cent received 20 per cent of the benefits. On median household incomes, the picture from the US census bureau did show a strong 10 per cent real-terms increase between 2016 and 2019. In the previous 20 years the average growth rate had been just 2.5 per cent. The most insightful comments on all subjects will be published daily in dedicated articles. The Dow 30 Industrials has risen over 10,000 points or just under 60% since Trump was elected. Want an ad-free experience?Subscribe to Independent Premium. The promise that they would pay for themselves has not materialized as the Federal budget deficit has ballooned to $1 trillion levels not seen in a non-recessionary environment. GDP growth hasn’t reached Trump’s 3% or higher goal. Trump and his economic advisers initially pledged to radically decrease federal spending in order to reduce the country's budget deficit. President Trump has been in office for three years, which is enough time to analyze how the economy is doing vs. his statements on how it would perform. And, of course, this year the US jobs market has suffered its gravest crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Manufactured goods imports from 14 traditional Asian low-cost countries as a share of domestic manufacturing fell from 13 per cent in 2018 to 12 per cent in 2019, the first drop in a decade on this measure put together by the consulting firm Kearney. Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? The recession is over for the rich, but the working class is far from recovered Perhaps the best case Trump can … You can find our Community Guidelines in full here. Vaccine, Stimulus Optimism Quickly Dashed By Worries Over New Covid-19 Strain. Page 2 The stock market: President Trump frequently points to the stock market as evidence of his success, even though it is a poor proxy for the nation’s overall economic well-being since nearly half of Americans do not own stock, either directly or indirectly. Yet more than 60 per cent of the tax savings went to people in the top fifth of the income ladder, according to the independent Tax Policy Centre. Its goals looked to be overly ambitious and didn’t tackle the really tough items on the agenda. That was respectable – but nothing out of the ordinary. What’s been the impact of his tax cuts and trade wars? “Our focus is on helping the folks who work in the mailrooms and the machine shops of America,” claimed the President. A result of Trump’s trade war with China is U.S. companies and farmers selling fewer goods to it. However, many analysts think the decision of the US central bank to effectively promise unlimited money printing to support the economy at the nadir of the slump in March has as much to do with the stunning recovery of share prices as optimism about Trump’s economic management. Independent Premium Comments can be posted by members of our membership scheme, Independent Premium. He created a prosperous economy, he says, and will do … And this year the American economy has contracted at the fastest rate seen in any post-war presidency. Wage growth is better but seemingly stuck around 3%. The numbers say no, You may not agree with our views, or other users’, but please respond to them respectfully, Swearing, personal abuse, racism, sexism, homophobia and other discriminatory or inciteful language is not acceptable, Do not impersonate other users or reveal private information about third parties, We reserve the right to delete inappropriate posts and ban offending users without notification. The US President made some audacious promises when he was elected. Democrats argue that Trump inherited an economy that was … However, even by this measure, … And the jobless rate exploded from 3.5 per cent to 14.7 per cent. Trump and Obama (and their admirers) are slugging it out, both claiming that it is their policies that have led to the ongoing economic expansion, steady job growth and higher stock prices. Partially due to the President own experiences, discuss real-world solutions, and more likely when, there another. 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